KIND / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

46%

15%

12%

12%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 29.2¢Risks 29.15u

EPSNO 70.8¢Risks 70.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.85u · EPS −70.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:49+00:00	91.7%	49.0%	80.3%	30.1%	32.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	91.7%	49.0%	80.3%	30.1%	32.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	91.7%	49.0%	80.3%	30.1%	32.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	91.7%	49.0%	80.3%	30.1%	32.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:03+00:00	91.7%	49.0%	80.3%	30.1%	32.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	50.9%	15.0%	51.1%	21.2%	10.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	50.9%	11.5%	51.1%	21.2%	10.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	50.9%	11.5%	51.1%	21.2%	10.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	50.9%	11.5%	48.9%	21.2%	10.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	50.9%	11.5%	48.9%	21.2%	10.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	50.9%	11.5%	48.9%	21.2%	10.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	47.4%	11.5%	48.9%	15.4%	11.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	47.4%	11.5%	48.9%	15.4%	11.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	47.4%	11.5%	48.9%	15.4%	11.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	47.4%	11.5%	48.9%	15.4%	11.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	47.4%	11.5%	48.9%	15.4%	11.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	47.4%	11.5%	46.8%	15.4%	11.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	47.4%	11.5%	46.8%	15.4%	11.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	47.4%	11.5%	46.8%	15.4%	11.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	46.5%	11.5%	46.8%	15.4%	11.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	46.5%	11.5%	46.8%	15.4%	11.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	46.5%	11.5%	46.8%	15.4%	11.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	46.5%	11.5%	46.8%	15.4%	11.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	72.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	72.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	67.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	12%	66.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	68.9°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 73°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗