KIND / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

30%

12%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.1¢Risks 19.05u

EPSNO 81.0¢Risks 80.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.95u · EPS −80.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	6.1%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	28.4%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.4%	3.1%	18.9%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	33.0%	29.8%	1.9%	—	25.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	9.0%	28.5%	1.2%	—	12.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	6.8%	34.4%	10.0%	—	20.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	4.3%	33.7%	6.4%	—	12.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	0.0%	31.9%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	0.6%	19.5%	1.7%	—	5.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	0.6%	21.4%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	1.6%	22.1%	1.4%	—	5.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	1.9%	35.9%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	1.4%	20.9%	0.4%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	4.0%	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	6.8%	24.7%	1.3%	—	5.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	4.7%	28.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	4.0%	25.9%	0.4%	—	4.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	8.3%	33.5%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	4.5%	30.1%	1.0%	22.1%	5.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	24.0%	0.0%	—	2.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	72.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	68.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	66.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	69.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗