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KIND / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
45%
WN2
34%
HRES
9%
EPS
8%
ICON
2%
Consensus
7%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 23.5¢Risks 23.50u
VS
ICONNO 76.5¢Risks 76.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.50u · ICON −76.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 26.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 14.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-07 06:0010-13 18:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:001.2%————3.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0016.9%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0026.5%————9.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:005.6%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0022.8%————8.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0016.5%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0020.4%————14.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:009.1%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0015.6%————12.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0031.6%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0047.9%————23.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:009.6%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0043.1%————23.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0050.5%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0018.1%————28.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0016.4%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:009.3%————29.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0012.0%—20.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0035.6%————24.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0021.7%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:006.9%————29.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0044.6%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0035.8%————25.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0030.5%—27.8%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0063.5%—4.5%——19.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0053.2%—10.8%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0043.5%—23.1%——9.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0050.7%—40.2%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0060.0%2.1%14.7%——16.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0054.1%—25.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0058.4%26.9%24.1%1.2%—19.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0046.4%—30.7%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0050.7%6.4%22.6%0.7%—9.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0044.8%—20.5%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0030.9%4.6%27.7%7.0%—15.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0037.0%—27.2%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0021.8%2.7%26.8%4.3%—9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0017.3%0.0%25.0%——6.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:009.7%0.4%14.3%1.0%—3.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0010.7%0.3%15.7%——3.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0010.1%0.9%16.1%0.8%—3.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:007.8%1.1%27.9%——1.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:006.3%0.8%14.9%0.2%—1.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:005.9%2.3%14.3%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:007.9%4.2%17.7%0.7%—3.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:007.6%2.7%20.4%——0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:009.4%2.2%18.3%0.2%—2.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0013.8%5.0%24.5%——2.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0015.5%2.4%21.3%0.5%14.9%3.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0013.5%—16.1%0.0%—1.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single45%75.0°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 234%74.2°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast10%71.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES9%70.0°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble8%70.8°F3.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend4%70.0°F3.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON2%68.1°F3.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗