KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

74%

34%

28%

12%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.8¢Risks 45.80u

HRESNO 54.2¢Risks 54.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.20u · HRES −54.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	14.6%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	21.2%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	3.0%	59.4%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	23.0%	74.3%	21.4%	—	46.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	8.2%	65.0%	25.4%	—	24.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	3.0%	59.1%	6.8%	—	16.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	54.7%	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	11.9%	57.9%	4.9%	—	17.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	0.1%	59.7%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	10.8%	59.9%	5.8%	—	12.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	10.7%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	22.1%	57.0%	8.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	14.5%	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	14.9%	60.9%	7.9%	—	5.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	26.9%	63.9%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	18.3%	61.5%	15.3%	54.9%	16.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	58.0%	—	—	8.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	74.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	72.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	69.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	67.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	64.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗