KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

74%

34%

28%

12%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.8¢Risks 45.80u

HRESNO 54.2¢Risks 54.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.20u · HRES −54.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00	71.5%	34.0%	84.6%	19.5%	35.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	71.5%	34.0%	84.6%	19.5%	35.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	71.5%	34.0%	84.6%	19.5%	35.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	71.5%	34.0%	71.4%	19.5%	35.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	71.5%	34.0%	71.4%	19.5%	35.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	71.5%	34.0%	71.4%	19.5%	35.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	72.2%	34.0%	71.4%	11.9%	28.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	72.2%	34.0%	71.4%	11.9%	28.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	72.2%	34.0%	71.4%	11.9%	28.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	72.2%	34.0%	71.4%	11.9%	28.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	72.2%	34.0%	71.4%	11.9%	28.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	72.2%	34.0%	74.1%	11.9%	28.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	72.2%	34.0%	74.1%	11.9%	28.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	72.2%	34.0%	74.1%	11.9%	28.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	79.7%	34.0%	74.1%	11.9%	28.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	79.7%	34.0%	74.1%	11.9%	28.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	79.7%	34.0%	74.1%	11.9%	28.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	80%	74.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	72.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	69.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	67.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	64.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗