KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

55%

20%

13%

10%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.6¢Risks 32.55u

EPSNO 67.5¢Risks 67.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.45u · EPS −67.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	82.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	8.5%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	13.0%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	1.3%	46.0%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	13.7%	61.8%	12.6%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	3.9%	50.7%	15.2%	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	1.2%	43.9%	3.0%	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	39.2%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	5.7%	42.1%	2.0%	—	9.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	0.0%	43.5%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	4.9%	43.4%	2.3%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	4.7%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	11.3%	39.6%	3.2%	—	6.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	6.6%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	6.6%	42.7%	3.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	13.7%	45.3%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	8.2%	42.3%	6.5%	35.7%	7.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	38.2%	—	—	3.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	56%	73.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	20%	67.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗