KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST27%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

55%

20%

13%

10%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 32.6¢Risks 32.55u

EPSNO 67.5¢Risks 67.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +67.45u · EPS −67.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:07+00:00	59.5%	26.9%	50.9%	15.1%	12.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	59.5%	26.9%	61.8%	15.1%	12.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	59.5%	26.9%	61.8%	15.1%	12.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	59.5%	26.9%	61.8%	15.1%	12.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	59.5%	26.9%	61.8%	15.1%	12.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	58.8%	26.9%	61.8%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	58.8%	26.9%	61.8%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	58.8%	26.9%	61.8%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	58.8%	26.9%	61.8%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:48+00:00	58.8%	12.7%	53.9%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	58.8%	12.7%	53.9%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	58.8%	12.7%	53.9%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	58.8%	12.7%	53.9%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	54.8%	12.7%	53.9%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	54.8%	12.7%	53.9%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	54.8%	9.5%	53.9%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	54.8%	9.5%	53.9%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	54.8%	9.5%	51.0%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	54.8%	9.5%	51.0%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	54.8%	9.5%	51.0%	6.9%	19.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	54.8%	9.5%	51.0%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	54.8%	9.5%	51.0%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	54.8%	9.5%	51.0%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	54.8%	9.5%	51.0%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	54.8%	9.5%	51.0%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	54.8%	9.5%	54.8%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	54.8%	9.5%	54.8%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	54.8%	9.5%	54.8%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	55.6%	9.5%	54.8%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	55.6%	9.5%	54.8%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	55.6%	9.5%	54.8%	13.1%	19.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	55.6%	9.5%	54.8%	13.1%	19.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	56%	73.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	73.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	20%	67.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 73°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗