KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

58%

40%

33%

20%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

EPSNO 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.40u · EPS −54.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	6.3%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	9.9%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	51.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	0.8%	39.3%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	10.2%	54.9%	9.3%	—	26.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	2.6%	43.4%	11.3%	—	10.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	0.7%	36.5%	1.9%	—	6.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	31.9%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	3.8%	34.5%	1.2%	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	0.0%	35.6%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	3.1%	35.3%	1.4%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	3.0%	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	7.7%	31.4%	1.9%	—	4.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	4.1%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	4.1%	33.9%	1.8%	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	9.2%	36.1%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.9%	5.1%	33.0%	4.0%	27.1%	4.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	29.1%	—	—	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	76.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	74.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	70.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	70.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 74°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗