KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

58%

40%

33%

20%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

EPSNO 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.40u · EPS −54.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:36+00:00	69.4%	20.7%	80.7%	26.2%	16.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	69.3%	20.7%	80.6%	26.2%	17.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	69.3%	19.7%	80.6%	26.2%	17.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	69.3%	19.7%	80.6%	26.2%	17.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	69.3%	19.7%	80.6%	26.2%	17.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	69.3%	19.7%	78.9%	26.2%	17.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	69.3%	19.7%	78.9%	26.2%	17.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	69.3%	19.7%	78.9%	26.2%	17.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:03+00:00	57.6%	19.7%	78.9%	26.2%	39.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:31+00:00	57.6%	19.7%	78.9%	26.2%	39.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	57.6%	19.7%	78.9%	26.2%	39.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	57.6%	19.7%	78.9%	26.2%	39.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	57.6%	19.7%	78.9%	32.6%	39.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	57.6%	19.7%	71.5%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	57.6%	19.7%	71.5%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	57.6%	19.7%	71.5%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	57.6%	19.7%	71.5%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	57.6%	19.7%	71.5%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	57.6%	19.7%	71.5%	32.7%	39.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	57.6%	19.7%	71.5%	32.7%	39.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	76.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	74.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	74.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	70.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	70.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	70.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 74°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗