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KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
46%
WN2
34%
EPS
4%
HRES
3%
ICON
2%
Consensus
5%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 24.3¢Risks 24.25u
VS
ICONNO 75.8¢Risks 75.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.75u · ICON −75.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.1% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 63.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 60.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 67.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-08 06:0010-14 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.7%————1.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:003.6%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:003.2%————7.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0020.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0020.4%————8.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0042.1%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:007.1%————7.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0045.8%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0020.1%————11.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0019.7%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0015.9%————10.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0045.8%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0024.8%————14.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:006.8%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0029.7%————26.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0012.0%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0045.7%————23.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0034.2%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0016.4%————25.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0023.7%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0043.2%————24.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0031.1%—0.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0073.2%—0.2%——12.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0033.2%—20.5%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0059.0%————6.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0063.9%—67.9%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0060.0%—3.3%——15.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0066.2%—29.8%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0048.7%—5.3%——19.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0041.4%—38.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0050.7%0.3%27.1%——11.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0033.3%—11.0%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0021.9%5.2%40.9%4.7%—16.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0021.4%—32.0%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0021.0%1.0%29.7%5.7%—5.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0018.9%—25.6%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0013.4%0.2%23.4%0.7%—2.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0015.4%—19.5%——1.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0014.5%1.5%21.2%0.4%—2.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0011.8%0.0%21.8%——1.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0011.6%1.1%21.3%0.4%—1.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0011.5%1.0%14.7%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0013.1%3.1%17.8%0.6%—1.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:009.6%1.4%19.6%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:009.4%1.4%19.0%0.5%—0.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0014.3%3.6%20.3%——0.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0018.3%1.7%17.7%1.2%13.6%1.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0017.0%—14.6%——0.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single46%75.1°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 234%74.1°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend6%67.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%70.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES3%67.3°F4.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast3%68.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
ICON2%67.5°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗