KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

34%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.3¢Risks 24.25u

ICONNO 75.8¢Risks 75.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.75u · ICON −75.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:37+00:00	56.3%	7.7%	68.2%	17.1%	12.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	56.2%	7.7%	68.1%	17.2%	12.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	56.2%	7.5%	68.1%	17.2%	12.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	56.2%	7.5%	68.1%	17.2%	12.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	56.2%	7.5%	68.1%	17.2%	12.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	56.2%	7.5%	66.0%	17.2%	12.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	56.2%	7.5%	66.0%	17.2%	12.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	56.2%	7.5%	66.0%	17.2%	12.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:03+00:00	43.8%	7.5%	66.0%	17.2%	32.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:31+00:00	43.8%	7.5%	66.0%	17.2%	32.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	43.8%	7.5%	66.0%	17.2%	32.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	43.8%	7.5%	66.0%	17.2%	32.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	43.8%	7.5%	66.0%	22.4%	32.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	43.8%	7.5%	57.0%	22.4%	32.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	43.8%	7.5%	57.0%	22.4%	32.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	43.8%	7.5%	57.0%	22.4%	32.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	43.8%	7.5%	57.0%	22.4%	32.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	43.8%	7.5%	57.0%	22.4%	32.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	43.8%	7.5%	57.0%	22.4%	32.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	43.8%	7.5%	57.0%	22.4%	32.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	37.7%	6.7%	26.8%	6.9%	6.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	37.7%	6.7%	36.6%	6.9%	6.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	37.7%	6.7%	36.6%	6.9%	6.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	37.7%	6.7%	36.6%	6.9%	6.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	37.7%	6.7%	36.6%	6.9%	6.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	35.1%	6.7%	36.6%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	35.1%	6.7%	36.6%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	35.1%	6.7%	36.6%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	35.1%	6.7%	36.6%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:48+00:00	35.1%	1.3%	26.3%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	35.1%	1.3%	26.3%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	35.1%	1.3%	26.3%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	35.1%	1.3%	26.3%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	31.4%	1.3%	26.3%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	31.4%	1.3%	26.3%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	31.4%	1.0%	26.3%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	31.4%	1.0%	26.3%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	31.4%	1.0%	24.0%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	31.4%	1.0%	24.0%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	31.4%	1.0%	24.0%	2.3%	9.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	31.4%	1.0%	24.0%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	31.4%	1.0%	24.0%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	31.4%	1.0%	24.0%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	31.4%	1.0%	24.0%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	31.4%	1.0%	24.0%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	31.4%	1.0%	27.2%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	31.4%	1.0%	27.2%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	31.4%	1.0%	27.2%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	32.1%	1.0%	27.2%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	32.1%	1.0%	27.2%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	32.1%	1.0%	27.2%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	32.1%	1.0%	27.2%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00	32.1%	1.0%	27.2%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	32.1%	1.0%	34.0%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	32.1%	1.0%	34.0%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	32.1%	1.0%	34.0%	5.0%	9.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00	33.9%	1.0%	34.0%	3.1%	8.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	33.9%	1.0%	34.0%	3.1%	8.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	33.9%	1.0%	34.0%	3.1%	8.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	33.9%	1.0%	34.0%	3.1%	8.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	33.9%	1.0%	34.0%	3.1%	8.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00	33.9%	1.6%	37.4%	3.1%	8.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	33.9%	1.6%	37.4%	3.1%	8.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	33.9%	1.6%	37.4%	3.1%	8.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	30.1%	1.6%	37.4%	3.1%	8.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	30.0%	1.6%	37.4%	3.1%	8.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00	30.0%	1.6%	37.4%	3.1%	8.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	30.0%	1.6%	37.4%	3.1%	8.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	30.0%	1.6%	37.4%	3.1%	8.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	30.0%	1.6%	21.8%	3.1%	8.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	30.0%	1.6%	21.8%	3.1%	8.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	30.0%	1.6%	21.8%	3.1%	8.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	30.8%	1.6%	21.8%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	30.8%	1.6%	21.8%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	30.8%	1.6%	21.8%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	30.8%	1.6%	21.8%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	30.8%	1.6%	21.8%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	30.8%	1.6%	24.2%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	30.8%	1.6%	24.2%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	30.8%	1.6%	24.2%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	39.7%	1.6%	24.2%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	39.7%	1.6%	24.2%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	39.7%	1.6%	24.2%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-20T04:04:41+00:00	39.7%	1.6%	24.2%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	39.7%	1.6%	24.2%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	39.7%	1.6%	34.3%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	39.7%	1.6%	34.3%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	39.7%	1.6%	34.3%	1.5%	5.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	46.3%	1.6%	34.3%	1.5%	2.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	46.3%	1.6%	34.3%	1.5%	2.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	46.3%	1.6%	34.3%	1.5%	2.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	46.3%	1.6%	34.3%	1.5%	2.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00	46.3%	3.8%	33.8%	3.3%	2.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	46.3%	3.8%	33.8%	3.3%	2.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	46.3%	3.8%	33.8%	3.3%	2.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	46.3%	3.8%	33.8%	3.3%	2.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	46.3%	3.8%	33.8%	3.3%	2.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	46.3%	3.8%	33.8%	3.3%	2.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	46%	75.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	74.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	70.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	67.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	2%	67.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗