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KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
31%
WN2
20%
HRES
5%
ICON
5%
EPS
4%
Consensus
13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 17.3¢Risks 17.30u
VS
EPSNO 82.7¢Risks 82.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.70u · EPS −82.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-17T15:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T15:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T15:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 20.2% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T15:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00IFS HRES: 12.8% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00IFS HRES: 5.1% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00IFS HRES: 5.1% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00IFS HRES: 5.1% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00IFS HRES: 5.1% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00IFS HRES: 5.1% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00IFS HRES: 5.1% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00IFS HRES: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00IFS HRES: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00IFS HRES: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00IFS HRES: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00IFS HRES: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-17T15:24:51+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:0010-17 15:2410-17 21:2610-18 03:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T15:24:51+00:0034.2%3.7%30.4%12.8%8.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:0034.2%3.7%30.4%12.8%8.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:0034.2%3.7%30.4%12.8%8.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:0034.2%3.7%30.4%12.8%8.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:0034.2%3.7%30.4%12.8%8.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:0034.2%3.7%30.4%12.8%8.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:0027.1%3.7%30.4%5.1%4.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:0027.1%3.7%30.4%5.1%4.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:0027.1%3.7%30.4%5.1%4.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:0027.1%3.7%30.4%5.1%4.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:0027.1%3.7%20.2%5.1%4.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:0027.1%3.7%20.2%5.1%4.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:0027.1%3.7%20.2%5.1%4.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:0027.1%3.7%20.2%5.1%4.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:0030.9%3.7%20.2%5.1%4.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:0030.9%3.7%20.2%5.1%4.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:0030.9%3.7%20.2%5.1%4.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%77.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
National Blend37%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
AIFS Single31%73.8°F5.4°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 220%72.6°F4.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES5%65.7°F6.6°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
ICON5%64.4°F7.2°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%70.4°F3.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗