KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

20%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.3¢Risks 17.30u

EPSNO 82.7¢Risks 82.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.70u · EPS −82.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	2.3%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	3.8%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	0.2%	21.8%	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	3.6%	34.3%	3.2%	—	12.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	0.6%	23.7%	3.9%	—	3.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	0.1%	17.9%	0.4%	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	14.5%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	0.9%	15.9%	0.2%	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	16.3%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	0.6%	15.7%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	0.6%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	1.8%	12.7%	0.3%	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	0.8%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	0.8%	13.4%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	2.1%	14.3%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	0.9%	12.1%	0.6%	9.0%	0.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	9.6%	—	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	73.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	72.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	65.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	5%	64.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	70.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗