KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

20%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 17.3¢Risks 17.30u

EPSNO 82.7¢Risks 82.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.70u · EPS −82.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:51+00:00	34.2%	3.7%	30.4%	12.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	34.2%	3.7%	30.4%	12.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	34.2%	3.7%	30.4%	12.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	34.2%	3.7%	30.4%	12.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	34.2%	3.7%	30.4%	12.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	34.2%	3.7%	30.4%	12.8%	8.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	27.1%	3.7%	30.4%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	27.1%	3.7%	30.4%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	27.1%	3.7%	30.4%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	27.1%	3.7%	30.4%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	27.1%	3.7%	20.2%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	27.1%	3.7%	20.2%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	27.1%	3.7%	20.2%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	27.1%	3.7%	20.2%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	30.9%	3.7%	20.2%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	30.9%	3.7%	20.2%	5.1%	4.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	30.9%	3.7%	20.2%	5.1%	4.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	73.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	72.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	65.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	5%	64.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	70.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗