KIND / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

84%

64%

52%

39%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.7¢Risks 68.70u

HRESNO 31.3¢Risks 31.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.30u · HRES −31.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	33.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	92.4%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	74.8%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	1.1%	69.4%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	9.0%	76.5%	6.9%	—	32.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	33.7%	81.1%	21.0%	—	35.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	28.3%	79.5%	55.3%	—	38.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	45.2%	75.2%	32.3%	—	37.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	0.3%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	34.5%	80.5%	37.7%	—	19.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	44.9%	79.9%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	62.1%	77.2%	37.9%	58.7%	44.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	86.0%	—	—	31.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	77.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	86%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	73.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	64%	70.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	68.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	66.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261024-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗