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KIND / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
98%
AIFS
84%
ICON
64%
EPS
52%
HRES
39%
Consensus
80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 68.7¢Risks 68.70u
VS
HRESNO 31.3¢Risks 31.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.30u · HRES −31.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00AIFS Single: 85.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 83.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00AIFS Single: 83.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.5% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS HRES: 47.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS HRES: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00IFS HRES: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS HRES: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00IFS HRES: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00IFS HRES: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00IFS HRES: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00IFS HRES: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 63.4% · 2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00ICON: 63.5% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:0085.8%39.9%92.1%47.0%53.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:0085.8%39.9%93.8%47.0%53.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:0085.8%39.9%93.8%47.0%53.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0085.8%39.9%93.8%47.0%53.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:0090.9%39.9%93.8%39.1%63.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0090.9%39.9%93.8%39.1%63.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0090.9%39.9%93.8%39.1%63.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:0090.9%39.9%93.8%39.1%63.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:0090.9%39.9%93.8%39.1%63.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:0090.9%52.5%98.3%39.1%63.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:0090.9%52.5%98.3%39.1%63.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0090.9%52.5%98.3%39.1%63.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:0083.9%52.5%98.3%39.1%63.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0083.9%52.5%98.3%39.1%63.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 298%77.2°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend86%72.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
AIFS Single84%73.4°F4.9°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON64%70.6°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%69.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble52%68.8°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES39%66.9°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261024-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗