KIND / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

48%

26%

19%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.7¢Risks 42.70u

ICONNO 57.3¢Risks 57.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.30u · ICON −57.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	44.2%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	0.1%	36.7%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	1.3%	43.7%	0.9%	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	9.0%	48.5%	4.2%	—	9.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	6.3%	44.7%	20.5%	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	13.1%	37.5%	7.2%	—	9.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	0.0%	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	7.4%	42.5%	8.7%	—	2.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	11.5%	40.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	21.4%	36.3%	8.0%	19.0%	10.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	48.2%	—	—	5.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	77.6°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	74.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	73.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	70.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	67.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	59.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗