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KIND / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
77%
AIFS
48%
EPS
26%
HRES
19%
ICON
8%
Consensus
37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 42.7¢Risks 42.70u
VS
ICONNO 57.3¢Risks 57.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.30u · ICON −57.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.5% · 2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 26.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS HRES: 19.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00IFS HRES: 19.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS HRES: 19.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 19.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 19.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0010-17 07:4410-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:0047.9%26.5%77.4%19.3%8.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:0047.9%26.5%77.4%19.3%8.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:0047.9%26.5%77.4%19.3%8.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:0047.9%26.5%77.4%19.3%8.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0047.9%26.5%77.4%19.3%8.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 277%77.6°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
National Blend54%74.0°F5.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single48%73.2°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble26%70.8°F4.3°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS HRES19%67.9°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON8%59.5°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗