KIND / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

78%

65%

60%

43%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.2¢Risks 62.15u

HRESNO 37.8¢Risks 37.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.85u · HRES −37.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	52.4%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	1.1%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	25.2%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.9%	4.7%	48.6%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	44.4%	23.5%	6.9%	—	38.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	65.7%	56.6%	27.2%	64.3%	49.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	53.7%	—	—	0.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	76.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	75.9°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	65%	75.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	72.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	70.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261026-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 72°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗