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KIND / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
81%
AIFS
78%
ICON
65%
EPS
60%
HRES
43%
Consensus
68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 62.2¢Risks 62.15u
VS
HRESNO 37.8¢Risks 37.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.85u · HRES −37.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00AIFS Single: 84.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00AIFS Single: 77.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00AIFS Single: 77.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 77.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.1% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 29.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00ICON: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00ICON: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00ICON: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00ICON: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00ICON: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00ICON: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00ICON: 29.9% · 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:0010-19 11:2010-19 19:4510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:0088.8%59.9%86.3%50.0%29.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:0088.8%59.9%86.3%50.0%29.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0088.8%59.9%86.3%50.0%29.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:0076.2%59.9%86.3%50.0%29.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:0076.2%59.9%86.4%50.0%29.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:0076.2%59.9%86.4%50.0%29.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:0076.2%59.9%86.4%50.0%29.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:0076.2%59.9%86.4%50.0%29.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:0076.2%59.9%60.1%50.0%29.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:0076.2%59.9%60.1%50.0%29.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:0076.2%59.9%60.1%50.0%29.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:0084.0%59.9%60.1%43.2%64.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:0084.0%59.9%60.1%43.2%64.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:0084.0%59.9%60.1%43.2%64.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:0084.0%59.9%60.1%43.2%64.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:0084.0%59.9%60.1%43.2%64.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:0084.0%59.9%81.1%43.2%64.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:0084.0%59.9%81.1%43.2%64.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:0084.0%59.9%81.1%43.2%64.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:0077.8%59.9%81.1%43.2%64.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:0077.8%59.9%81.1%43.2%64.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:0077.8%59.9%81.1%43.2%64.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 281%76.0°F5.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single78%75.9°F5.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
ICON65%75.3°F10.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble60%72.5°F4.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend53%72.0°F6.6°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES43%70.4°F6.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261026-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 72°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗