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KIND / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
98%
EPS
97%
WN2
92%
ICON
66%
HRES
60%
Consensus
92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 78.8¢Risks 78.85u
VS
HRESNO 21.2¢Risks 21.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +21.15u · HRES −21.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 87.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 92.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 83.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 89.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 94.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 89.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 47.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 69.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 89.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 87.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 87.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 67.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 68.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 66.7% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 92.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 51.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 46.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 60.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 57.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 70.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 55.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 70.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 62.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 60.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 64.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:001.1%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:009.8%———15.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0025.7%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0026.5%———51.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0059.5%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0022.0%———36.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0061.5%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0043.1%———39.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0047.3%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0026.5%———46.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0024.8%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0076.8%———47.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0087.7%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0092.5%———60.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0061.0%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0077.6%———57.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0083.5%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0088.8%———70.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0083.6%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0090.3%———65.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0089.1%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0076.6%———55.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0094.9%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0088.6%—69.7%—70.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0087.8%—89.5%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0069.8%———62.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0025.8%—34.4%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0055.6%—87.5%—60.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0036.8%—87.6%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0094.0%—22.1%—64.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0030.9%—67.9%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0091.5%47.3%68.8%92.8%65.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0089.3%—66.7%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single98%76.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble97%72.4°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 292%71.7°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON66%68.7°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES60%66.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%65.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261027-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 65°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗