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KIND / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
62%
EPS
31%
WN2
29%
ICON
28%
HRES
10%
Consensus
25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 35.6¢Risks 35.65u
VS
HRESNO 64.3¢Risks 64.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.35u · HRES −64.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 40.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.0%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.4%———0.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:002.4%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.5%———9.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0013.7%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:001.8%———4.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0014.9%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:006.6%———5.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:008.1%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:002.5%———7.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:002.2%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0027.4%———8.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0043.1%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0054.2%———14.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0014.6%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0028.3%———12.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0035.9%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0045.2%———21.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0035.2%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0046.7%———16.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0043.3%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0024.3%———10.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0057.5%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0039.6%—17.0%—17.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0037.1%—40.6%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0015.8%———11.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.4%—2.6%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:007.6%—33.5%—9.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:002.6%—32.7%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0046.8%—0.8%—10.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:001.5%—11.6%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0037.4%3.9%11.4%40.6%9.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0031.4%—9.8%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single62%76.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble31%72.4°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 229%71.7°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON28%68.7°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend14%65.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES10%66.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261027-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗