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KIND / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
62%
EPS
31%
WN2
29%
ICON
28%
HRES
10%
Consensus
25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 35.6¢Risks 35.65u
VS
HRESNO 64.3¢Risks 64.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.35u · HRES −64.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:44+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00AIFS Single: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 29.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:44+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00ICON: 28.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:44+00:00ICON: 28.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 28.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 28.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:1010-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:44+00:0061.6%30.9%29.1%9.6%28.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0061.6%30.9%29.1%9.6%28.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0061.6%30.9%29.1%9.6%28.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0061.6%30.9%29.1%9.6%28.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:0061.7%30.9%29.1%9.6%28.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:0061.7%30.9%29.1%9.6%28.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single62%76.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble31%72.4°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 229%71.7°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON28%68.7°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend14%65.0°F8.8°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES10%66.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261027-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗