KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.9¢Risks 15.90u

EPSNO 84.1¢Risks 84.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.10u · EPS −84.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	7.0%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	30.7%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	6.5%	0.1%	0.2%	—	6.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	15.2%	11.3%	13.2%	—	6.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	18.4%	1.2%	5.6%	—	4.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	9.7%	9.3%	3.4%	—	2.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.0%	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	12.9%	9.0%	0.7%	—	1.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.5%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	7.0%	2.4%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	32%	82.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1005
IFS HRES	8%	77.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0056
WeatherNext 2	7%	79.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0053
NWS forecast	5%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0022
National Blend	4%	77.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0016
AIFS Single	3%	76.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0011
IFS Ensemble	<1%	77.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗