KJAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.9¢Risks 15.90u

EPSNO 84.1¢Risks 84.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.10u · EPS −84.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:44+00:00	4.4%	10.1%	13.7%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	4.4%	10.1%	13.7%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:07+00:00	4.4%	10.1%	13.7%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	4.4%	10.1%	13.7%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:39+00:00	4.4%	10.1%	13.7%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:47+00:00	4.4%	1.0%	5.9%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00	4.4%	1.0%	5.9%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	4.4%	1.0%	5.9%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:41+00:00	14.9%	1.0%	5.9%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00	15.0%	1.0%	6.0%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:30+00:00	15.0%	1.2%	6.0%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00	15.0%	1.2%	6.0%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00	15.0%	1.2%	6.0%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:00+00:00	15.0%	1.2%	4.5%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:00	15.0%	1.2%	4.5%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00	15.0%	1.2%	4.5%	28.0%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00	27.7%	1.2%	4.5%	23.4%	33.8%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00	27.7%	1.2%	4.5%	23.4%	33.8%
2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00	27.7%	1.2%	4.5%	23.4%	33.8%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00	27.7%	1.2%	4.5%	23.4%	33.8%
2026-10-11T22:44:11+00:00	27.7%	1.2%	4.5%	23.4%	33.8%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00	27.7%	1.2%	10.9%	23.4%	33.9%
2026-10-12T00:14:43+00:00	27.7%	1.2%	10.9%	23.4%	33.9%
2026-10-12T01:00:10+00:00	27.7%	1.2%	10.9%	23.4%	33.9%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00	30.8%	1.2%	10.9%	23.4%	33.9%
2026-10-12T02:30:28+00:00	30.8%	1.2%	10.9%	23.4%	33.9%
2026-10-12T03:15:37+00:00	30.8%	1.2%	10.9%	23.4%	33.9%
2026-10-12T04:01:16+00:00	30.8%	1.2%	10.9%	23.4%	33.9%
2026-10-12T04:47:14+00:00	30.8%	1.2%	10.9%	23.4%	33.9%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	30.8%	1.2%	14.2%	23.4%	33.9%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	30.8%	1.2%	14.2%	23.4%	33.9%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	30.8%	1.2%	14.2%	23.4%	33.9%
2026-10-12T07:47:57+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	14.2%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	14.2%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	14.2%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	14.2%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	14.2%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	16.7%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00	29.2%	0.4%	16.7%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	29.2%	0.4%	16.7%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	26.1%	0.4%	16.7%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	26.1%	0.4%	16.8%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00	26.1%	0.4%	16.8%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	16.8%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	12.8%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	12.8%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	12.8%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	12.8%	26.1%	38.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	24.9%	0.3%	12.8%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	24.9%	0.3%	12.8%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	24.9%	0.3%	12.8%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	24.9%	0.3%	12.8%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	24.9%	0.3%	16.2%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	24.9%	0.3%	16.2%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	24.9%	0.3%	16.2%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	24.9%	0.3%	16.2%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	16.2%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	16.2%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	16.2%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:29+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	16.2%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	18.5%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	18.5%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:07+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	18.5%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	26.1%	0.3%	18.5%	17.2%	43.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:01+00:00	17.4%	0.3%	18.5%	10.6%	25.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	17.4%	0.3%	18.5%	10.6%	25.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	17.4%	0.3%	18.5%	10.6%	25.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	17.4%	0.3%	18.5%	10.6%	25.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:14+00:00	17.4%	0.1%	4.5%	10.6%	25.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	17.4%	0.1%	4.5%	10.6%	25.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	17.4%	0.1%	4.5%	10.6%	25.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	17.4%	0.1%	4.5%	10.6%	25.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	9.5%	0.1%	4.7%	10.6%	25.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	9.5%	0.1%	4.7%	10.6%	25.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	9.5%	0.1%	4.7%	10.6%	25.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	9.5%	0.1%	4.7%	11.0%	25.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	9.5%	0.1%	4.2%	11.0%	25.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	9.5%	0.1%	4.2%	11.0%	25.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	9.5%	0.1%	4.2%	11.0%	25.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	15.1%	0.1%	4.2%	11.0%	31.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	15.1%	0.1%	4.2%	11.0%	31.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	15.1%	0.1%	4.2%	11.0%	31.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:07+00:00	15.1%	0.1%	4.2%	11.0%	31.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	15.1%	0.1%	4.2%	7.8%	31.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	15.1%	0.1%	7.3%	7.5%	31.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	15.1%	0.1%	7.3%	7.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	15.1%	0.1%	7.3%	7.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	7.3%	7.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	7.3%	7.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	7.3%	7.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	7.3%	7.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	7.3%	7.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	7.3%	7.5%	31.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	3.3%	0.1%	7.3%	7.5%	31.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	32%	82.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1005
IFS HRES	8%	77.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0056
WeatherNext 2	7%	79.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0053
NWS forecast	5%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0022
National Blend	4%	77.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0016
AIFS Single	3%	76.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0011
IFS Ensemble	<1%	77.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261018-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗