KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

50%

40%

28%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.8¢Risks 57.80u

ICONNO 42.2¢Risks 42.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.20u · ICON −42.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	84.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	87.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	86.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	1.2%	—	—	91.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	—	—	—	89.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	87.0%	—	—	91.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	56.7%	97.5%	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.4%	—	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	96.9%	73.1%	52.1%	—	93.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.8%	98.8%	98.5%	92.6%	—	94.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	97.6%	99.1%	92.2%	—	94.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	97.8%	99.4%	54.8%	—	79.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	67.4%	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.8%	32.2%	99.5%	17.8%	—	56.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	63.4%	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	42.2%	98.8%	51.7%	—	52.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	64.9%	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	55.5%	72.6%	51.8%	—	60.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	62.1%	34.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	66.1%	49.0%	45.1%	—	38.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	48.0%	74.3%	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	55.1%	62.2%	45.9%	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	41.6%	46.8%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	45.6%	55.5%	25.5%	3.1%	39.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	43.3%	66.4%	6.7%	—	35.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	43.0%	63.7%	27.0%	48.8%	37.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	47.6%	66.4%	18.3%	—	37.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	33.1%	66.9%	25.6%	9.5%	38.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	34.9%	68.7%	29.1%	—	33.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	58.0%	39.4%	85.9%	36.8%	73.9%	38.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	61.0%	83.6%	32.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.4%	51.4%	86.2%	31.8%	82.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	73.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	74.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	70.5°F	2.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	69.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗