KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

87%

50%

40%

28%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.8¢Risks 57.80u

ICONNO 42.2¢Risks 42.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.20u · ICON −42.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:23+00:00	81.3%	57.8%	91.4%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	81.3%	57.8%	92.3%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	81.3%	57.8%	92.3%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	81.3%	57.8%	92.3%	50.0%	61.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	79.8%	57.8%	92.3%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	79.8%	57.8%	92.3%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00	79.8%	57.8%	92.3%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	79.8%	57.8%	92.3%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	79.8%	57.8%	92.3%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	79.8%	61.8%	86.4%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	79.8%	61.8%	86.4%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	79.8%	61.8%	86.4%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	84.9%	61.8%	86.4%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	85.0%	61.8%	86.4%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	85.0%	63.7%	86.4%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	85.0%	63.7%	86.4%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	85.0%	63.7%	79.0%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	85.0%	63.7%	79.0%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	85.0%	63.7%	79.0%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	85.0%	63.7%	79.0%	43.2%	42.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	81.9%	63.7%	79.0%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	81.9%	63.7%	79.0%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	81.9%	63.7%	79.0%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	81.9%	63.7%	79.0%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	81.9%	63.1%	77.1%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	81.9%	63.1%	77.1%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	81.9%	63.1%	77.1%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	81.9%	63.1%	77.1%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	80.6%	63.1%	77.1%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	80.6%	63.1%	77.1%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	80.6%	63.1%	77.1%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	80.6%	63.1%	77.1%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	80.6%	63.1%	79.0%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	80.6%	63.1%	79.0%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	80.6%	63.1%	79.0%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	80.6%	63.1%	79.0%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:00+00:00	83.9%	63.1%	79.0%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	83.9%	63.1%	79.0%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	83.9%	63.1%	79.0%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	83.9%	63.1%	79.0%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	83.9%	64.8%	81.4%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	83.9%	64.8%	81.4%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	83.9%	64.8%	81.4%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	83.9%	64.8%	81.4%	44.7%	22.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	83.3%	64.8%	81.4%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00	83.3%	64.8%	81.4%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	83.3%	50.0%	81.4%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	83.3%	50.0%	81.4%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	83.3%	50.0%	80.5%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:20+00:00	83.3%	50.0%	80.5%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	83.3%	50.0%	80.5%	44.6%	22.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	80.5%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	80.5%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	80.5%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	80.5%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	80.5%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	83.2%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	83.2%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	83.2%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	83.2%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	83.2%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	83.2%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	83.2%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	83.2%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	87.9%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	87.9%	40.4%	27.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	86.8%	50.0%	87.9%	40.4%	27.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	88%	73.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	74.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	70.5°F	2.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	69.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗