KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

66%

42%

33%

22%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.8¢Risks 49.75u

EPSNO 50.2¢Risks 50.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.25u · EPS −50.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	—	—	—	78.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	0.5%	—	—	85.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	78.8%	—	—	84.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	43.3%	94.8%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.1%	93.5%	60.4%	38.2%	—	87.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	97.1%	96.4%	86.1%	—	88.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	94.4%	97.6%	84.9%	—	87.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	94.7%	98.2%	39.0%	—	66.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	51.6%	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	18.9%	98.4%	9.0%	—	40.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	46.6%	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	26.2%	96.4%	34.6%	—	35.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	47.3%	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	37.3%	55.5%	33.9%	—	42.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	43.4%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	47.1%	30.4%	27.1%	—	21.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	29.1%	56.0%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	34.9%	41.8%	26.8%	—	29.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	22.8%	27.1%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	25.5%	34.1%	11.4%	0.8%	20.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	23.1%	44.4%	1.9%	—	17.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	22.4%	40.8%	11.6%	27.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	25.3%	42.8%	6.6%	—	17.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	14.4%	42.6%	10.0%	2.6%	18.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	15.0%	43.6%	11.5%	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	17.3%	65.7%	15.7%	48.7%	16.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	33.8%	61.0%	12.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	24.5%	64.2%	11.5%	58.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	75.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	74.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	71.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	70.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	70.9°F	2.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗