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KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
78%
AIFS
66%
ICON
42%
HRES
33%
EPS
22%
Consensus
46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 49.8¢Risks 49.75u
VS
EPSNO 50.2¢Risks 50.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.25u · EPS −50.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 54.6% · 2026-10-16T15:05:21+00:00AIFS Single: 54.6% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00AIFS Single: 54.6% · 2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00AIFS Single: 54.6% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00AIFS Single: 54.6% · 2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00AIFS Single: 54.6% · 2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00AIFS Single: 59.2% · 2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00AIFS Single: 66.3% · 2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00AIFS Single: 66.3% · 2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00AIFS Single: 66.3% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00AIFS Single: 66.3% · 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T15:05:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.5% · 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-10-16T15:05:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.8% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.8% · 2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.8% · 2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.8% · 2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.8% · 2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.8% · 2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.8% · 2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.8% · 2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 78.0% · 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-16T15:05:21+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-16T15:05:21+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00ICON: 42.0% · 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:0010-16 15:0510-16 21:5210-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T15:05:21+00:0054.6%21.5%62.8%21.7%54.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:0054.6%21.5%62.8%21.7%54.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:0054.6%21.5%62.8%21.7%54.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:0054.6%21.5%78.8%21.7%54.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:0054.6%21.5%78.8%21.7%54.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:0054.6%21.5%78.8%21.7%54.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:0059.2%21.5%78.8%21.7%42.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:0059.2%21.5%78.8%21.7%42.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:0059.2%21.5%78.8%21.7%42.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:0059.2%21.5%78.8%21.7%42.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:0059.2%21.5%78.8%32.7%42.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:0059.2%21.5%78.0%32.7%42.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:0059.2%21.5%78.0%32.7%42.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:0059.2%21.5%78.0%32.7%42.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:0066.3%21.5%78.0%32.7%42.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:0066.3%21.5%78.0%32.7%42.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:0066.3%21.5%78.0%32.7%42.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:0066.3%21.5%78.0%32.7%42.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 278%75.1°F3.4°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single66%74.3°F4.3°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
NWS forecast55%73.0°F3.9°F2026-10-16 14:00Pending
National Blend46%72.0°F5.5°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
ICON42%71.7°F4.0°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS HRES33%70.5°F4.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble22%70.9°F2.0°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗