KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

36%

34%

11%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 21.8¢Risks 21.80u

EPSNO 78.2¢Risks 78.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +78.20u · EPS −78.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	76.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	68.2%	—	—	75.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	77.7%	30.6%	90.1%	—	—	83.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	87.8%	46.5%	25.7%	—	79.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	93.6%	92.4%	76.3%	—	80.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	94.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	88.6%	94.4%	74.2%	—	78.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	88.9%	95.5%	24.8%	—	50.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	35.6%	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	9.7%	95.7%	3.9%	—	25.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	30.3%	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	14.1%	91.3%	20.2%	—	20.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	30.2%	95.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	21.6%	37.3%	19.0%	—	25.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	26.1%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	28.7%	15.9%	13.6%	—	10.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	14.6%	36.3%	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	18.3%	23.5%	12.8%	—	14.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.8%	10.1%	12.7%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	11.4%	16.9%	4.0%	0.1%	8.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	9.7%	24.0%	0.4%	—	6.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	9.0%	20.7%	3.8%	11.6%	6.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	10.2%	21.6%	1.7%	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	4.6%	20.8%	2.8%	0.5%	6.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	4.6%	20.9%	3.2%	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	5.3%	39.4%	4.6%	24.0%	5.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	13.2%	33.8%	3.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	7.8%	35.8%	2.7%	30.5%	5.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	7.5%	38.1%	2.0%	—	2.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	4.8%	42.1%	2.2%	29.0%	1.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.6%	33.9%	1.6%	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3036
WeatherNext 2	40%	73.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1560
AIFS Single	36%	73.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1318
ICON	34%	72.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1176
National Blend	33%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1063
IFS HRES	11%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0119
IFS Ensemble	4%	70.8°F	2.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0017

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗