KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

36%

34%

11%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 21.8¢Risks 21.80u

EPSNO 78.2¢Risks 78.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +78.20u · EPS −78.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:53+00:00	80.2%	23.2%	65.7%	13.6%	25.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	80.2%	23.2%	65.7%	13.6%	25.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	80.2%	23.2%	77.4%	13.6%	25.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	80.2%	23.2%	77.4%	13.6%	25.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	80.2%	23.2%	77.4%	13.6%	25.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	80.2%	23.2%	77.4%	13.6%	25.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	34.7%	23.2%	77.4%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	34.7%	23.2%	77.4%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	34.7%	23.2%	77.4%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	34.7%	23.2%	77.4%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	34.7%	23.2%	57.5%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	34.7%	23.2%	57.5%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	34.7%	23.2%	57.5%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	54.3%	23.2%	57.5%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	54.3%	23.2%	57.5%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	54.3%	23.2%	57.5%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	54.3%	23.2%	57.5%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	54.3%	23.2%	57.5%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	54.3%	23.2%	51.1%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	54.3%	23.2%	51.1%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	54.3%	23.2%	51.1%	14.5%	36.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	37.2%	23.2%	51.1%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	37.2%	23.2%	51.1%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	37.2%	23.2%	51.1%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	37.2%	23.2%	51.1%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	37.2%	23.2%	51.1%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	37.2%	4.0%	39.5%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	37.2%	4.0%	39.5%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	37.2%	4.0%	39.5%	14.5%	34.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:10+00:00	36.3%	4.0%	39.5%	10.9%	34.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	36.3%	4.1%	39.5%	10.9%	34.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3036
WeatherNext 2	40%	73.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1560
AIFS Single	36%	73.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1318
ICON	34%	72.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1176
National Blend	33%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1063
IFS HRES	11%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0119
IFS Ensemble	4%	70.8°F	2.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0017

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗