KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

83%

83%

69%

44%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.3¢Risks 64.30u

ICONNO 35.7¢Risks 35.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.70u · ICON −35.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	60.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	49.4%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	—	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	15.5%	78.2%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	73.7%	26.9%	11.9%	—	61.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	83.5%	81.1%	56.6%	—	61.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	73.6%	84.5%	53.0%	—	58.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	73.2%	86.4%	10.0%	—	28.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	16.3%	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	2.7%	86.2%	0.9%	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	12.3%	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.1%	75.9%	6.8%	—	7.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	11.6%	83.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	7.0%	15.4%	5.8%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	8.8%	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	9.8%	4.2%	3.4%	—	2.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	3.5%	13.5%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	4.7%	6.7%	2.8%	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	1.9%	2.6%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	2.1%	3.8%	0.5%	0.0%	1.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	1.6%	6.0%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.3%	4.5%	0.4%	1.9%	0.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.5%	4.5%	0.1%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.4%	4.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.4%	3.7%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.4%	10.1%	0.4%	4.3%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.5%	7.1%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.6%	7.3%	0.1%	5.5%	0.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.5%	7.5%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	8.3%	0.1%	4.1%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	4.9%	0.0%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	83.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.7157
WeatherNext 2	83%	82.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.6922
IFS HRES	83%	83.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.6856
IFS Ensemble	69%	79.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.4775
National Blend	53%	78.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2809
ICON	44%	76.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1936

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗