KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

83%

83%

76%

69%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.1¢Risks 39.07u

HRESNO 21.9¢Risks 10.93u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +10.93u · HRES −10.93u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	42.9%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	11.8%	72.9%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	67.7%	21.4%	8.7%	—	54.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	78.5%	75.7%	49.3%	—	54.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	67.0%	79.5%	45.4%	—	50.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	66.3%	81.6%	6.9%	—	21.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	11.8%	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	1.6%	81.0%	0.5%	—	6.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	8.5%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.5%	68.6%	4.3%	—	4.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	7.8%	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	4.3%	10.6%	3.6%	—	5.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	5.6%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	6.2%	2.4%	1.9%	—	1.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.0%	8.8%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	2.6%	4.0%	1.5%	—	1.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.0%	1.4%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.1%	2.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.8%	3.3%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.6%	2.4%	0.2%	0.9%	0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.7%	2.3%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.2%	2.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	1.8%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	5.3%	0.1%	2.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.6%	3.5%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	3.5%	0.0%	2.5%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	3.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	3.7%	0.0%	1.6%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.9%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	84.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.7569
AIFS Single	83%	83.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.6922
IFS Ensemble	83%	80.8°F	2.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.6906
ICON	76%	85.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.5822
IFS HRES	69%	81.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.4802
National Blend	55%	79.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2970

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗