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KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 03:30 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
87%
AIFS
83%
EPS
83%
ICON
76%
HRES
69%
Consensus
81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 78.1¢Risks 39.07u
VS
HRESNO 21.9¢Risks 10.93u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +10.93u · HRES −10.93u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00AIFS Single: 80.0% · 2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00AIFS Single: 79.0% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00AIFS Single: 78.8% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.4% · 2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.1% · 2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.1% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.1% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.1% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.1% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.1% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.1% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.1% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.1% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00IFS HRES: 69.3% · 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00ICON: 40.0% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:0010-12 11:3510-12 19:5810-13 03:30
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:0080.0%57.4%83.9%78.5%40.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:0080.0%84.1%83.9%78.5%40.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:0080.0%84.1%83.9%78.5%40.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:0079.0%84.1%83.9%78.5%40.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:0078.8%84.1%83.8%78.5%40.0%
2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:0078.8%84.1%83.8%78.5%40.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:0078.8%83.1%83.8%78.5%40.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:0078.8%83.1%80.1%78.5%40.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:0078.8%83.1%80.1%78.5%40.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:0078.8%83.1%80.1%78.5%40.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:0078.8%83.1%80.1%78.5%40.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:0083.2%83.1%80.1%69.3%76.3%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:0083.2%83.1%80.1%69.3%76.3%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:0083.2%83.1%80.1%69.3%76.3%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:0083.2%83.1%80.1%69.3%76.3%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:0083.2%83.1%87.0%69.3%76.3%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:0083.2%83.1%87.0%69.3%76.3%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:0083.2%83.1%87.0%69.3%76.3%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:0083.2%83.1%87.0%69.3%76.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:0083.2%83.1%87.0%69.3%76.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:0083.2%83.1%87.0%69.3%76.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:0083.2%83.1%87.0%69.3%76.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 287%84.1°F5.0°F2026-10-12 12:000.7569
AIFS Single83%83.9°F5.6°F2026-10-12 18:000.6922
IFS Ensemble83%80.8°F2.4°F2026-10-12 00:000.6906
ICON76%85.6°F9.9°F2026-10-12 12:000.5822
IFS HRES69%81.7°F6.3°F2026-10-12 12:000.4802
National Blend55%79.0°F4.4°F2026-10-12 06:000.2970

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 79°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗