KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

16%

16%

13%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 22.8¢Risks 22.75u

ICONNO 77.2¢Risks 77.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +77.25u · ICON −77.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	36.6%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	56.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	8.8%	67.0%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	61.1%	16.6%	6.3%	—	47.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	72.8%	69.6%	42.0%	—	47.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	59.8%	73.6%	38.0%	—	43.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	58.7%	75.8%	4.7%	—	16.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	8.2%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	0.9%	74.9%	0.2%	—	4.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	5.6%	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.5%	60.4%	2.7%	—	2.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	5.0%	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.6%	7.0%	2.1%	—	3.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	3.4%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	3.8%	1.3%	1.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.1%	5.4%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.4%	2.2%	0.8%	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.5%	0.7%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.5%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.3%	1.7%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	1.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	1.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	2.6%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	1.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	1.5%	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.5%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3091
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
AIFS Single	38%	78.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1452
IFS Ensemble	16%	75.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0272
WeatherNext 2	16%	75.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0253
IFS HRES	13%	72.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0159
ICON	7%	70.9°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0055

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗