KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

16%

16%

13%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 22.8¢Risks 22.75u

ICONNO 77.2¢Risks 77.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +77.25u · ICON −77.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:29+00:00	78.3%	70.6%	82.3%	63.6%	73.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	78.3%	70.6%	79.5%	63.6%	73.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	78.3%	70.6%	79.5%	63.6%	73.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:07+00:00	78.3%	70.6%	79.5%	63.6%	73.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	78.3%	70.6%	79.5%	63.6%	73.1%
2026-10-13T08:03:01+00:00	69.4%	70.6%	79.5%	60.8%	83.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	69.4%	70.6%	79.5%	60.8%	83.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	69.4%	70.6%	79.5%	60.8%	83.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	69.4%	70.6%	79.5%	60.8%	83.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:14+00:00	69.4%	52.4%	68.5%	60.8%	83.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	69.4%	52.4%	68.5%	60.8%	83.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	69.4%	52.4%	68.5%	60.8%	83.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	69.4%	52.4%	68.5%	60.8%	83.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	61.1%	52.4%	68.5%	60.8%	83.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	61.1%	52.4%	68.5%	60.8%	83.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	61.1%	52.4%	68.5%	60.8%	83.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	61.1%	52.4%	68.5%	60.8%	83.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	61.1%	52.4%	67.7%	60.8%	83.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	61.1%	52.4%	67.7%	60.8%	83.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	61.1%	52.4%	67.7%	60.8%	83.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	68.8%	52.4%	67.7%	60.8%	75.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	68.8%	52.4%	67.7%	60.8%	75.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	68.8%	52.4%	67.7%	60.8%	75.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:07+00:00	68.8%	52.4%	67.7%	60.8%	75.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	68.8%	52.4%	67.7%	54.9%	75.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	68.8%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	75.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	68.8%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	68.8%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	50.8%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	50.8%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:35+00:00	50.8%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	50.8%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	50.8%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	50.8%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	50.8%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	50.8%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	75.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	53.2%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	73.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	53.2%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	73.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	53.2%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	73.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	53.2%	52.4%	78.4%	54.9%	73.5%
2026-10-14T10:32:29+00:00	53.2%	52.4%	78.4%	20.3%	73.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:43+00:00	53.2%	16.5%	27.2%	20.3%	73.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	53.2%	16.5%	27.2%	20.3%	73.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	53.2%	16.5%	27.2%	20.3%	73.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	40.4%	16.5%	27.2%	20.3%	73.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	40.5%	16.5%	27.2%	20.3%	73.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:08+00:00	40.5%	16.5%	27.2%	20.3%	73.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	40.5%	16.5%	27.2%	20.3%	73.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	40.5%	16.5%	27.2%	20.3%	73.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	40.5%	16.5%	16.5%	20.3%	73.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	40.5%	16.5%	16.5%	20.3%	73.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	40.5%	16.5%	16.5%	20.3%	73.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	33.6%	16.5%	16.5%	12.6%	7.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	33.6%	16.5%	16.5%	12.6%	7.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	33.6%	16.5%	16.5%	12.6%	7.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	33.6%	16.5%	16.5%	12.6%	7.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	33.6%	16.5%	16.5%	12.6%	7.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	33.6%	16.5%	15.9%	12.6%	7.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	33.6%	16.5%	15.9%	12.6%	7.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	33.6%	16.5%	15.9%	12.6%	7.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	38.1%	16.5%	15.9%	12.6%	7.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	38.1%	16.5%	15.9%	12.6%	7.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	38.1%	16.5%	15.9%	12.6%	7.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	80.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3091
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
AIFS Single	38%	78.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1452
IFS Ensemble	16%	75.8°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0272
WeatherNext 2	16%	75.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0253
IFS HRES	13%	72.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0159
ICON	7%	70.9°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0055

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗