KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

70%

67%

20%

19%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 50.2¢Risks 50.15u

AIFSNO 49.8¢Risks 49.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +49.85u · AIFS −49.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	99.2%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	81.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	16.8%	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	50.0%	3.6%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	4.5%	33.0%	54.9%	—	9.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	1.9%	2.4%	10.3%	—	8.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	3.8%	1.5%	11.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	3.4%	1.1%	53.2%	—	26.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	40.3%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	74.9%	0.9%	87.1%	—	51.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	44.9%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	66.2%	2.2%	57.0%	—	56.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	43.7%	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	53.7%	35.6%	57.3%	—	48.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	47.2%	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	43.2%	60.6%	64.3%	—	70.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	61.8%	34.4%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	55.1%	47.9%	64.1%	—	61.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	68.4%	63.5%	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	64.9%	55.5%	82.4%	98.4%	70.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	67.5%	44.4%	96.2%	—	74.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	68.0%	47.7%	81.7%	62.6%	73.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	64.1%	45.2%	88.6%	—	73.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.1%	77.3%	45.0%	83.4%	94.8%	72.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	76.2%	43.6%	80.9%	—	77.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	72.7%	23.0%	74.9%	38.1%	73.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.6%	52.8%	26.5%	78.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	62.8%	23.4%	79.8%	28.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	81%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	69.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	70.5°F	2.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	73.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	74.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗