KJAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≤ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

70%

67%

20%

19%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 50.2¢Risks 50.15u

AIFSNO 49.8¢Risks 49.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +49.85u · AIFS −49.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:19+00:00	42.2%	12.9%	11.7%	69.1%	51.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	42.2%	12.9%	11.7%	69.1%	51.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	42.2%	12.9%	11.7%	69.1%	51.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	42.2%	12.9%	11.7%	69.1%	51.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	42.2%	12.9%	11.7%	69.1%	51.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	42.2%	12.9%	11.3%	69.1%	51.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	42.2%	39.5%	11.3%	69.1%	51.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00	42.2%	39.5%	11.3%	69.1%	51.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	6.6%	39.5%	11.3%	69.1%	51.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	6.6%	39.5%	11.3%	69.1%	51.6%
2026-10-15T15:33:55+00:00	6.6%	39.5%	11.3%	69.1%	51.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	6.6%	39.5%	11.3%	69.1%	51.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	6.6%	39.5%	5.9%	69.1%	51.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	6.6%	39.5%	5.9%	69.1%	51.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	6.6%	39.5%	5.9%	69.1%	51.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	6.6%	39.5%	5.9%	69.1%	51.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	39.7%	39.5%	5.9%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	39.7%	39.5%	5.9%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	39.7%	39.5%	5.9%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	39.7%	39.5%	5.9%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	39.7%	39.5%	16.0%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	39.7%	39.5%	16.0%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	39.7%	39.5%	16.0%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	22.3%	39.5%	16.0%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	22.3%	39.5%	16.0%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	22.3%	39.5%	16.0%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	22.3%	39.5%	16.0%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	22.3%	39.5%	16.0%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	22.3%	39.5%	20.2%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	22.3%	39.5%	20.2%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	22.3%	39.5%	20.2%	67.7%	39.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	35.4%	39.5%	20.2%	67.7%	36.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	35.4%	39.5%	20.2%	67.7%	36.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	35.4%	39.5%	20.2%	67.7%	36.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	35.4%	39.5%	20.2%	67.7%	36.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	35.4%	39.5%	20.2%	67.7%	36.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	35.4%	62.9%	26.7%	67.7%	36.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	35.4%	62.9%	26.7%	67.7%	36.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	35.4%	62.9%	26.7%	67.7%	36.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:10+00:00	36.3%	62.9%	26.7%	71.2%	36.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	36.3%	62.9%	26.7%	71.2%	36.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:22+00:00	36.3%	61.6%	26.7%	71.2%	36.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	36.3%	61.6%	26.7%	71.2%	36.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	36.3%	61.6%	26.7%	71.2%	36.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	36.3%	61.6%	13.6%	71.2%	36.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	36.3%	61.6%	13.6%	71.2%	36.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	36.3%	61.6%	13.6%	71.2%	36.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00	32.0%	61.6%	13.6%	71.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	32.0%	61.6%	13.6%	71.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	32.0%	61.6%	13.6%	71.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	32.0%	61.6%	13.6%	71.2%	48.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	32.0%	61.6%	13.6%	58.9%	48.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00	32.0%	61.6%	14.3%	58.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00	32.0%	61.6%	14.3%	58.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	32.0%	61.6%	14.3%	58.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	25.6%	61.6%	14.3%	58.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	25.6%	61.6%	14.3%	58.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	25.6%	61.6%	14.3%	58.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	25.6%	61.6%	14.3%	58.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:24+00:00	25.6%	61.6%	14.3%	58.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	25.6%	61.6%	13.0%	58.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	25.6%	61.6%	13.0%	58.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	25.6%	61.6%	13.0%	58.9%	48.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	27.8%	61.6%	13.0%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	27.8%	61.6%	13.0%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00	27.8%	61.6%	13.0%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	27.8%	61.6%	13.0%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	27.8%	61.6%	13.0%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	27.8%	57.9%	21.9%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	27.8%	57.9%	21.9%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	27.8%	57.9%	21.9%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	21.6%	57.9%	21.9%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	21.5%	57.9%	21.9%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	21.5%	56.0%	21.9%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	21.5%	56.0%	21.9%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	21.5%	56.0%	31.4%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	21.5%	56.0%	31.4%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	21.5%	56.0%	31.4%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	21.5%	56.0%	31.4%	66.1%	68.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	25.3%	56.0%	31.4%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	25.3%	56.0%	31.4%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	25.3%	56.0%	31.4%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	25.3%	56.0%	31.4%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	25.3%	55.7%	33.7%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	25.3%	55.7%	33.7%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	25.3%	55.7%	33.7%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	25.3%	55.7%	33.7%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	26.9%	55.7%	33.7%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	26.9%	55.7%	33.7%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	26.9%	55.7%	33.7%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	26.9%	55.7%	33.7%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	26.9%	55.7%	31.4%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	26.9%	55.7%	31.4%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	26.9%	55.7%	31.4%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	26.9%	55.7%	31.4%	69.6%	70.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:00+00:00	23.1%	55.7%	31.4%	65.7%	85.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	23.1%	55.7%	31.4%	65.7%	85.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	23.1%	55.7%	31.4%	65.7%	85.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	23.1%	55.7%	31.4%	65.7%	85.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	23.1%	53.8%	29.1%	65.7%	85.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	23.1%	53.8%	29.1%	65.7%	85.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	23.1%	53.8%	29.1%	65.7%	85.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	23.1%	53.8%	29.1%	65.7%	85.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	23.9%	53.8%	29.1%	65.7%	85.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00	23.9%	53.8%	29.1%	65.7%	85.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	23.9%	66.8%	29.1%	65.7%	85.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	23.9%	66.8%	29.1%	65.7%	85.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	23.9%	66.8%	30.3%	65.7%	85.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:20+00:00	23.9%	66.8%	30.3%	65.7%	85.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	23.9%	66.8%	30.3%	65.7%	85.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	30.3%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	30.3%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	30.3%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	30.3%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	30.3%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	26.8%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	26.8%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	26.8%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	26.8%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	26.8%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	26.8%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	26.8%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	26.8%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	20.5%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	20.5%	69.6%	80.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	19.4%	66.8%	20.5%	69.6%	80.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	81%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	69.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	70.5°F	2.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	73.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	74.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗