KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

63%

24%

22%

14%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

EPSNO 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.40u · EPS −54.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	76.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	73.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	79.8%	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	94.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	62.2%	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	34.2%	93.0%	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	80.1%	96.2%	28.6%	—	81.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.4%	73.4%	97.1%	11.3%	—	63.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	39.4%	97.3%	56.1%	—	51.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	52.4%	66.3%	62.5%	—	48.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	9.2%	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	51.7%	65.5%	34.5%	—	55.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	44.0%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	33.8%	61.3%	36.3%	—	47.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	47.3%	81.6%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	47.2%	67.8%	23.0%	—	37.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	54.7%	55.7%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	39.4%	57.7%	14.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	48.0%	58.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	39.8%	56.1%	26.8%	0.0%	34.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	47.9%	56.3%	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	41.3%	58.7%	18.3%	—	26.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	41.0%	51.1%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	28.9%	54.6%	10.5%	0.0%	22.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	37.0%	54.8%	13.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	33.1%	62.3%	12.4%	41.3%	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	34.9%	60.2%	9.2%	—	16.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	34.3%	46.0%	5.7%	36.8%	14.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	44.4%	48.6%	5.8%	—	19.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	42.8%	52.9%	8.3%	45.7%	20.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	56.0%	5.1%	—	10.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	76.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	75.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	74.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	71.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	22%	71.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	72.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗