KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

63%

24%

22%

14%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.6¢Risks 45.60u

EPSNO 54.4¢Risks 54.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.40u · EPS −54.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:24+00:00	68.5%	68.4%	75.8%	33.7%	61.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	68.5%	68.4%	74.9%	33.7%	61.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	68.5%	68.4%	74.9%	33.7%	61.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	68.5%	68.4%	74.9%	33.7%	61.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	74.4%	68.4%	74.9%	39.4%	46.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	74.4%	68.4%	74.9%	39.4%	46.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00	74.4%	68.4%	74.9%	39.4%	46.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	74.4%	68.4%	74.9%	39.4%	46.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	74.4%	68.4%	74.9%	39.4%	46.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	74.4%	40.9%	76.2%	39.4%	46.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	74.4%	40.9%	76.2%	39.4%	46.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	74.4%	40.9%	76.2%	39.4%	46.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	77.3%	40.9%	76.2%	39.4%	46.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	77.3%	41.2%	76.2%	39.4%	46.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00	77.7%	33.7%	73.0%	34.8%	37.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	77.7%	24.8%	73.0%	34.8%	37.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	77.7%	24.8%	73.0%	34.8%	37.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	77.7%	24.8%	69.7%	34.8%	37.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:20+00:00	77.7%	24.8%	69.7%	34.8%	37.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	77.7%	24.8%	69.7%	34.8%	37.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	75.5%	24.8%	69.7%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	75.5%	24.8%	69.7%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	75.5%	24.8%	69.7%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	75.5%	24.8%	69.7%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	75.5%	24.8%	69.7%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	75.5%	24.8%	68.6%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	75.5%	24.8%	68.6%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	75.5%	24.8%	68.6%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	76.2%	24.8%	68.6%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	76.2%	24.8%	68.6%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	76.2%	24.8%	68.6%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	76.2%	24.8%	68.6%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	76.2%	24.8%	68.6%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	76.2%	24.8%	74.1%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	76.2%	24.8%	74.1%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	76.2%	24.8%	74.1%	31.3%	26.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:51+00:00	76.1%	24.8%	74.1%	25.0%	22.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	76.1%	24.8%	74.1%	25.0%	22.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	76.1%	24.8%	74.1%	25.0%	22.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	76.1%	24.8%	74.1%	25.0%	22.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	76.1%	24.8%	74.1%	25.0%	22.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	76.1%	23.0%	63.4%	25.0%	22.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	76.1%	23.0%	63.4%	25.0%	22.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	76.1%	23.0%	63.4%	25.0%	22.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	72.0%	23.0%	63.4%	25.0%	22.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	72.1%	23.0%	63.4%	25.0%	23.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00	71.2%	13.9%	62.1%	24.2%	24.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	71.2%	13.9%	62.1%	24.2%	24.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	71.2%	13.9%	63.4%	24.2%	24.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	71.2%	13.9%	63.4%	24.2%	24.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	71.2%	13.9%	63.4%	24.2%	24.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	77.3%	13.9%	63.4%	24.2%	22.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	77.3%	13.9%	63.4%	24.2%	22.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	77.3%	13.9%	63.4%	24.2%	22.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	77.3%	13.9%	63.4%	24.2%	22.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	77%	76.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	75.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	74.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	71.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	22%	71.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	72.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗