KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

66%

50%

21%

19%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.7¢Risks 44.70u

EPSNO 55.3¢Risks 55.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.30u · EPS −55.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	64.1%	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	42.9%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	18.0%	83.3%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	62.4%	89.5%	13.7%	—	64.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	52.9%	91.0%	3.9%	—	42.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.5%	20.0%	91.3%	33.7%	—	29.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	29.5%	42.9%	39.0%	—	26.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	2.6%	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	27.9%	40.9%	15.2%	—	31.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	21.4%	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	14.1%	35.4%	15.6%	—	23.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	22.9%	58.9%	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	22.3%	40.9%	7.6%	—	15.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	27.6%	28.4%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.3%	15.9%	29.6%	3.8%	—	12.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	21.1%	29.1%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	15.1%	26.8%	8.2%	0.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	19.8%	26.2%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	14.9%	27.3%	4.2%	—	7.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	14.1%	20.6%	0.0%	—	6.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	7.6%	22.4%	1.7%	0.0%	5.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	10.8%	21.6%	2.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	8.5%	26.6%	1.8%	12.4%	4.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	8.7%	23.8%	1.1%	—	2.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	7.9%	13.4%	0.5%	8.9%	2.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	11.8%	13.9%	0.4%	—	2.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	10.2%	15.4%	0.7%	11.5%	2.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	16.2%	0.3%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	80.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	79.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	50%	77.5°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	77.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	72.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	75.6°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗