KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

66%

50%

21%

19%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 44.7¢Risks 44.70u

EPSNO 55.3¢Risks 55.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.30u · EPS −55.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:58+00:00	55.2%	44.6%	65.8%	29.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	55.2%	44.6%	65.8%	29.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	55.2%	44.6%	66.6%	29.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	55.2%	44.6%	66.6%	29.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	55.2%	44.6%	66.6%	29.7%	45.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:00	54.0%	44.6%	66.6%	20.8%	49.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	54.0%	44.6%	66.6%	20.8%	49.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	54.0%	44.6%	66.6%	20.8%	49.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	54.0%	44.6%	66.6%	20.8%	49.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	54.0%	44.6%	66.6%	20.8%	49.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	54.0%	44.6%	66.0%	20.8%	49.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	54.0%	19.4%	66.0%	20.8%	49.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00	54.0%	19.4%	66.0%	20.8%	49.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	70.0%	19.4%	66.0%	20.8%	50.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	70.0%	19.4%	66.0%	20.8%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	80.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	79.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	50%	77.5°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	77.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	72.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	75.6°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 78°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗