KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

73%

70%

53%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.2¢Risks 68.15u

HRESNO 31.9¢Risks 31.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.85u · HRES −31.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	58.1%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	36.6%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	13.9%	78.7%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	55.6%	85.9%	10.2%	—	57.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	45.6%	87.6%	2.6%	—	35.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	15.1%	87.8%	27.0%	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	23.0%	35.2%	31.6%	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	1.6%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	21.3%	33.0%	10.8%	—	24.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	15.7%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	9.7%	27.7%	10.9%	—	17.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	16.6%	50.0%	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	16.0%	32.2%	4.8%	—	10.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	20.3%	21.0%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	10.7%	21.8%	2.1%	—	7.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	14.6%	21.1%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	9.8%	19.0%	4.9%	0.0%	7.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	13.2%	18.3%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	9.4%	19.0%	2.3%	—	4.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	8.7%	13.5%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	4.2%	14.7%	0.8%	0.0%	2.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	6.2%	13.9%	1.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	4.6%	17.4%	0.8%	7.1%	2.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	4.6%	15.0%	0.4%	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	4.0%	7.4%	0.2%	4.6%	0.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	6.2%	7.6%	0.1%	—	1.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	5.1%	8.3%	0.2%	5.9%	1.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	8.6%	0.1%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	83.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	80.4°F	2.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	81.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	70%	83.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	79.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	79.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 79°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗