KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

73%

70%

53%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.2¢Risks 68.15u

HRESNO 31.9¢Risks 31.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.85u · HRES −31.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:01+00:00	79.9%	92.6%	81.5%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	79.9%	92.6%	81.5%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	79.9%	92.6%	81.5%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	79.9%	92.6%	81.5%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:14+00:00	79.9%	79.6%	80.7%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	79.9%	79.6%	80.7%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	79.9%	79.6%	80.7%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	79.9%	79.6%	80.7%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	70.3%	79.6%	80.6%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	70.3%	79.6%	80.6%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	70.3%	79.6%	80.6%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	70.3%	79.6%	80.6%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	70.3%	79.6%	76.5%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	70.3%	79.6%	76.5%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	70.3%	79.6%	76.5%	64.2%	42.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	78.3%	79.6%	76.5%	64.2%	70.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	78.3%	79.6%	76.5%	64.2%	70.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	78.3%	79.6%	76.5%	64.2%	70.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:07+00:00	78.3%	79.6%	76.5%	64.2%	70.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	78.3%	79.6%	76.5%	53.1%	70.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	78.3%	79.6%	83.2%	53.1%	70.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	78.3%	79.6%	83.2%	53.1%	70.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	78.3%	79.6%	83.2%	53.1%	70.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	72.7%	79.6%	83.2%	53.1%	70.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	72.7%	79.6%	83.2%	53.1%	70.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	83.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	80.4°F	2.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	81.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
ICON	70%	83.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	79.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	79.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 79°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗