KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 5.1¢Risks 1.26u

EPSNO 95.0¢Risks 23.74u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.74u · EPS −23.74u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	18.5%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	6.9%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	1.2%	34.8%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	13.7%	43.7%	0.6%	—	14.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	8.2%	44.9%	0.1%	—	4.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.9%	43.2%	2.5%	—	1.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.6%	3.8%	3.0%	—	1.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.0%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.2%	2.8%	0.4%	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.6%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.5%	5.7%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	1.9%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.6%	0.7%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	10%	79.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	9%	77.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	78.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	72.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	77.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗