KJAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 5.1¢Risks 1.26u

EPSNO 95.0¢Risks 23.74u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.74u · EPS −23.74u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:01+00:00	34.1%	2.0%	34.0%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	34.1%	2.0%	34.0%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	34.1%	2.0%	34.0%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	34.1%	2.0%	34.0%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:14+00:00	34.1%	1.3%	29.3%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	34.1%	1.3%	29.3%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	34.1%	1.3%	29.3%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	34.1%	1.3%	29.3%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	23.8%	1.3%	29.4%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	23.8%	1.3%	29.4%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	23.8%	1.3%	29.4%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	23.8%	1.3%	29.4%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	23.8%	1.3%	24.7%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	23.8%	1.3%	24.7%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	23.8%	1.3%	24.7%	22.9%	18.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	32.2%	1.3%	24.7%	22.9%	43.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	32.2%	1.3%	24.7%	22.9%	43.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	32.2%	1.3%	24.7%	22.9%	43.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:08+00:00	32.2%	1.3%	24.7%	22.9%	43.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	32.2%	1.3%	24.7%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	32.2%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	32.2%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	32.2%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	26.1%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	26.1%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:36+00:00	26.1%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	26.1%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	26.1%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	26.1%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	26.1%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	26.1%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	43.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	29.2%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	28.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	29.2%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	28.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	29.2%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	28.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	29.2%	1.3%	32.9%	15.3%	28.5%
2026-10-14T10:32:29+00:00	29.2%	1.3%	32.9%	7.8%	28.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:43+00:00	29.2%	0.2%	11.5%	7.8%	28.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	29.2%	0.2%	11.5%	7.8%	28.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	29.2%	0.2%	11.5%	7.8%	28.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	11.0%	0.2%	11.5%	7.8%	28.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	11.8%	0.3%	11.9%	7.9%	28.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:08+00:00	11.8%	0.2%	11.9%	7.9%	28.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	11.8%	0.2%	11.9%	7.9%	28.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	11.8%	0.2%	11.9%	7.9%	28.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	11.8%	0.2%	8.5%	7.9%	28.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	11.8%	0.2%	8.5%	7.9%	28.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	11.8%	0.2%	8.5%	7.9%	28.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	6.0%	0.2%	8.5%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	6.0%	0.2%	8.5%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	6.0%	0.2%	8.5%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	6.0%	0.2%	8.5%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	6.0%	0.2%	8.5%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	6.0%	0.2%	9.6%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	6.0%	0.2%	9.6%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	6.0%	0.2%	9.6%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	9.6%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	9.6%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	9.6%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:58+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	9.6%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	9.6%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	9.9%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	9.9%	1.4%	8.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	9.9%	1.4%	8.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	9.9%	1.4%	8.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	9.9%	1.4%	8.6%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	6.6%	0.2%	9.9%	1.4%	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	10%	79.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	9%	77.4°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	78.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	72.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	77.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗