KJAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

20%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.2¢Risks 13.20u

EPSNO 86.8¢Risks 86.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.80u · EPS −86.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	5.1%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	3.9%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	16.4%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	1.4%	44.6%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	7.9%	27.5%	0.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	6.9%	10.6%	2.4%	—	4.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	7.6%	6.8%	1.3%	—	3.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	4.1%	5.5%	0.9%	—	3.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.0%	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	5.8%	3.0%	0.6%	—	2.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	1.5%	5.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	2.7%	4.5%	1.6%	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	1.9%	6.3%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	1.6%	4.3%	1.6%	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.9%	3.6%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.9%	4.4%	2.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.3%	3.8%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.4%	2.2%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.4%	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.3%	0.5%	0.3%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.3%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.2%	1.6%	0.1%	2.3%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.6%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	81.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	81.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	77.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	77.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	77.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	78.2°F	2.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗