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KJAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
26%
WN2
20%
HRES
11%
AIFS
6%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 13.2¢Risks 13.20u
VS
EPSNO 86.8¢Risks 86.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.80u · EPS −86.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-15T04:01:59+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00AIFS Single: 6.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T04:01:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.2% · 2026-10-15T04:01:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.2% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.6% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.6% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00IFS HRES: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T04:01:59+00:00IFS HRES: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00IFS HRES: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00IFS HRES: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:00IFS HRES: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00IFS HRES: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00IFS HRES: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00IFS HRES: 10.6% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00ICON: 36.6% · 2026-10-15T04:01:59+00:00ICON: 36.6% · 2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00ICON: 36.6% · 2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:0010-15 04:0110-15 08:3510-15 11:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:01:59+00:0016.4%0.2%24.2%6.9%36.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:0016.4%0.2%24.2%6.9%36.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:0016.4%0.2%23.6%6.9%36.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:20+00:006.2%0.2%23.6%10.6%26.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:006.2%0.2%23.6%10.6%26.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:006.2%0.2%23.6%10.6%26.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:006.2%0.2%23.6%10.6%26.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:006.2%0.2%23.6%10.6%26.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:006.2%0.2%19.6%10.6%26.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON26%81.0°F7.1°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 220%81.5°F4.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES11%77.3°F6.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
NWS forecast7%77.0°F5.8°F2026-10-15 03:00Pending
AIFS Single6%77.2°F5.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend1%78.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%78.2°F2.5°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗