KJAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

84%

77%

51%

38%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

EPSNO 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.50u · EPS −37.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	38.1%	68.4%	79.3%	41.9%	15.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	38.1%	67.4%	79.3%	41.9%	15.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00	38.1%	67.4%	79.3%	41.9%	15.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	75.3%	67.4%	79.0%	42.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	75.3%	67.4%	79.0%	42.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00	75.3%	66.6%	79.0%	42.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	75.3%	66.6%	79.0%	42.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	75.3%	66.6%	77.3%	42.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	75.3%	66.6%	77.3%	42.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	75.3%	66.6%	77.3%	42.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	75.3%	66.6%	77.3%	42.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	84.6%	66.6%	77.3%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	84.6%	66.6%	77.3%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	84.6%	66.6%	77.3%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	84.6%	66.6%	77.3%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	84.6%	66.6%	72.9%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	84.5%	66.6%	72.9%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	84.5%	66.6%	72.9%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	86.5%	66.6%	72.9%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	86.5%	66.6%	72.9%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	86.5%	66.6%	72.9%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	86.5%	66.6%	72.9%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	86.5%	66.6%	72.9%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	86.5%	66.6%	79.0%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	86.5%	66.6%	79.0%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	86.5%	66.6%	79.0%	51.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	85.1%	66.6%	79.0%	51.2%	83.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	85.1%	66.6%	79.0%	51.2%	83.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	85.1%	66.6%	79.0%	51.2%	83.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	85.1%	66.6%	79.0%	51.2%	83.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	85.1%	66.6%	79.0%	51.2%	83.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	85.1%	38.0%	77.3%	51.2%	83.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	85.1%	38.0%	77.3%	51.2%	83.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	85.1%	38.0%	77.3%	51.2%	83.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:12+00:00	87.1%	38.0%	77.3%	51.2%	83.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	87.0%	38.0%	77.3%	51.2%	83.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	83.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	84%	84.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	81.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	77.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	76.8°F	2.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗