KJAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

84%

77%

51%

38%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

EPSNO 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.50u · EPS −37.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	—	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	75.6%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	59.0%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	0.6%	37.4%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	50.0%	35.6%	0.6%	—	37.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	72.8%	45.6%	24.9%	—	34.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	72.4%	17.9%	35.8%	—	30.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	69.8%	38.2%	23.0%	—	36.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	0.1%	48.4%	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	61.5%	46.7%	37.7%	—	26.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	33.4%	39.0%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	42.2%	57.0%	33.0%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	52.7%	49.1%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	40.9%	54.6%	16.6%	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	50.9%	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	42.3%	40.4%	25.5%	—	21.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	31.7%	35.3%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.9%	34.9%	39.8%	15.7%	—	18.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	38.5%	35.5%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	48.9%	48.9%	18.3%	43.5%	27.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	57.8%	0.0%	—	25.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	83.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	84%	84.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	81.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	77.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	76.8°F	2.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗